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tech 9 August 2026

The Entropy of Links: The Bet on URL Longevity

In the digital age, the durability of URLs is constantly challenged. A bold bet from 2011 on the disappearance of a URL in 11 years prompts us to think about the stability of online resources.

Article inspired by the original source
The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011) ↗ longbets.org

Introduction

In a fast-paced world, the stability of online resources has become a critical issue. In 2011, Jeremy Keith and Matthew A. Haughey set up an intriguing bet on the survival of a URL, highlighting the challenges of digital permanence. This bet, documented on [Long Bets](http://longbets.org/601/), raises a fundamental question: can URLs, these digital addresses, withstand the test of time?

The Context of the Bet

In 2011, Jeremy Keith predicted that the URL for the prediction would no longer be available by 2022. His perspective is based on the concept of web entropy, often illustrated by "link rot." According to a Harvard Law Review study, about 50% of the links in Supreme Court decisions and 70% in law journal articles were no longer accessible in 2013. Keith, quoting Tim Berners-Lee, asserts that "Cool URIs don't change," but the web is too dynamic to guarantee such permanence.

On the other hand, Matthew A. Haughey, the challenger, believes in the maturity of web technologies and digital preservation strategies. Haughey mentioned the use of 301 redirects to maintain access to resources, a common practice to prevent link obsolescence.

The Importance of Redirects and Archiving

301 redirects play a crucial role in URL persistence. They indicate that content has been permanently moved to a new address, which is essential for SEO and to prevent traffic loss. Google, for example, strongly recommends using 301 redirects to maintain page authority.

At the same time, web archiving has become an essential tool for information preservation. The Internet Archive, with its Wayback Machine project, captures and stores billions of web pages, providing an alternative solution to link ephemerality. In 2021, the Internet Archive announced it had surpassed 580 billion archived pages.

The Outcome of the Bet

On February 22, 2022, the URL www.longbets.org/601 needed to still point to an HTML document containing the prediction text. If the URL redirected correctly or was still active, Haughey would win the bet. Otherwise, Keith would triumph. Such a bet highlights the potential fragility of digital resources in the face of Internet evolution.

Conclusion

The question of URL longevity remains crucial in today's digital world. Redirect strategies, archiving, and better online resource management are essential measures to ensure long-term access to information. As an entrepreneur or tech decision-maker, it's vital to consider these challenges to preserve the integrity of your online presence.

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URL longevity link rot web archiving 301 redirects digital permanence
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