Introduction
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical chokepoints in the world for oil transportation. Approximately 20% of the world's oil passes through it, making it a crucial artery for global energy supplies. What would happen if this passage were closed? By using a simulation based on real oil trade data, we can explore the potential repercussions of such an event on the global market.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters
Located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic passage. According to the International Energy Agency, about 18 million barrels of crude oil transit daily through this strait. Its closure could cause major disruptions, not only for exporting countries like Saudi Arabia but also for importers in Asia, Europe, and America.
The Simulation: Methodology and Assumptions
Using data from UN Comtrade 2025 and supply chain network dynamics models, the simulation examines multiple disruption scenarios, from "severe degradation" to "extreme stress test." The basic assumptions include a retained capacity of 30% and demand and supply elasticities set at 0.10.
Disruption Scenarios
- Severe Degradation (30% disruption over 26 weeks): This scenario models a significant but manageable disruption, where prices would gradually increase and emergency stockpiles would begin to be tapped.
- Extreme Stress Test (10% disruption over 52 weeks): A catastrophic scenario where transport capacity is reduced to critical levels. Prices would reach record highs, and strategic resource allocation would become essential.
Economic Impacts
The simulation shows that even a moderate disruption can double the price of a barrel. An extreme stress test could push prices up to $200 per barrel, leading to global inflation and severely affecting oil-import-dependent economies.
Mitigation Measures
Bypass infrastructures, such as the East-West pipelines in Saudi Arabia, can reduce some impacts but are not sufficient to compensate for a total closure. Strategic reserves held by countries like the United States and China play a crucial role.
Conclusion
The simulation of closing the Strait of Hormuz highlights the fragility of the global oil distribution system. Although mitigation measures exist, the current dependence on this passage remains a significant vulnerability.
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