The Mega-Deal That Fizzled
The announcement shook the tech world in September 2025: Nvidia would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. A massive strategic partnership between the GPU king and the leader in generative AI.
Today? The deal is "on ice" according to the Wall Street Journal. Negotiations continue, but the amount has melted significantly.
What Happened?
Current Negotiations
The two parties are now discussing a much more modest investment: tens of billions as part of OpenAI's current funding round. That's still huge, but far from the initially mentioned $100 billion.
Several Hypotheses
- OpenAI's Valuation Challenged: As competition intensifies (Anthropic, Google, Meta), OpenAI's dominant position is less obvious than in 2024.
- Nvidia Is Diversifying Its Bets: With the rise of open-source models and competitors like AMD, Nvidia doesn't want to bet everything on one horse.
- Regulation Looming: An investment of this size would attract the attention of antitrust regulators, already very focused on the AI market.
What This Says About the AI Market in 2026
The End of Euphoria?
After two years of record fundraising and stratospheric valuations, the AI market shows signs of maturity — or fatigue.
Investors are starting to ask for proof of ROI. "How much does AI actually generate?" is becoming the killer question.
Compute: The Nerve of War
If Nvidia hesitates to commit massively to OpenAI, it's also because compute is becoming a resource that everyone wants to control. Microsoft, Google, Amazon are building their own chips. Nvidia dependency is decreasing.
OpenAI Must Prove Its Value
Without unconditional support from giants, OpenAI must demonstrate that its products generate enough revenue to justify its $150+ billion valuation.
What Businesses Should Remember
1. Don't Put All Your AI Eggs in One Basket
If even Nvidia hesitates, it's a signal. Diversify your AI providers and keep fallback options.
2. Focus on ROI, Not Hype
Investors are doing it — you should too. Every AI project should have clear success metrics.
3. Open-Source as a Hedge
Open-source models (Llama, Mistral, etc.) offer a credible alternative. Don't ignore them in your strategy.
What's Next?
Negotiations continue between Nvidia and OpenAI. A deal will probably be struck — but it will reflect a new reality: the AI market is maturing, and easy money is becoming scarcer.
Stay tuned for announcements in the coming weeks. This partnership (or lack thereof) will set the tone for 2026.