The Nightmare Scenario
A few years ago, the very idea would have seemed absurd. Today, European planners are studying it seriously: what would happen if the United States decided to cut off Europe's access to American technology?
This scenario, long considered science fiction, has become a possibility that Brussels can no longer ignore. Trade tensions, political divergences, and the precedent of tech sanctions against China have changed the game.
Critical Dependencies
Europe is dangerously dependent on American technology. This dependency manifests at multiple levels:
Cloud computing: AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud dominate the European market. Entire sectors, from banking to healthcare, rely on these infrastructures.
Semiconductors: Despite ASML in the Netherlands, Europe depends massively on American chips and American design software.
Enterprise software: Microsoft, Salesforce, Oracle... European businesses run on American solutions.
AI and language models: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google - the leaders are all American.
Contingency Plans
Facing this reality, the European Union has quietly launched several initiatives:
The European sovereign cloud project advances despite obstacles. The goal: have credible alternatives in case of crisis.
The European Chips Act aims to bring semiconductor production back to the continent. But results won't be visible for years.
Discussions are underway on creating "mirrors" of critical American services hosted on European infrastructure.
Why Now?
Several factors explain this new urgency:
The current US administration has shown willingness to use technology as a geopolitical weapon. Sanctions against Huawei demonstrated the feasibility of technological decoupling.
Tensions around Ukraine and divergences on China create unprecedented transatlantic friction.
American tech protectionism is intensifying, with growing restrictions on chip and AI technology exports.
The Cost of Autonomy
Breaking free from American dependency would cost astronomical sums. Estimates suggest hundreds of billions of euros over a decade.
But the cost of inaction could be even higher. A sudden technology blockade would paralyze the European economy within days.
A Race Against Time
Europe finds itself in an uncomfortable position: aware of its vulnerability but unable to remedy it quickly. Solutions exist, but implementation will take years.
Until then, the continent remains exposed to a risk it prefers not to name. The question is no longer whether Europe should act, but whether it's acting fast enough.