European governments are quietly working on emergency plans for a scenario that seemed unthinkable just a few years ago: a disruption of access to American technology services. This preparation is intensifying amid growing transatlantic tensions and political uncertainty in the United States.
Europe's dependence on American tech giants is staggering. AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud host a massive share of European digital infrastructure. Microsoft and Google productivity tools are ubiquitous in administrations and businesses across the continent. A shutdown, even partial, would paralyze entire sectors of the economy.
European officials are examining several mitigation scenarios. Accelerating investments in European sovereign clouds tops the priority list. France, Germany, and other nations are strengthening their local initiatives, although catching up with American hyperscalers remains a colossal challenge.
Artificial intelligence represents another major vulnerability point. The most advanced AI models come from American companies. A technology embargo would force Europe to drastically accelerate the development of its own AI capabilities while seeking alternatives from non-American partners.
This strategic reflection reveals a painful realization: European digital sovereignty is largely illusory in its current state. Decision-makers acknowledge that complete autonomy would require massive investments and unprecedented coordination among member states.
The paradox of this situation is that these preparations could accelerate the global technological fragmentation that Europe is precisely trying to avoid. Nevertheless, failing to prepare would expose the continent to existential risks in a world where technology is becoming a first-order geopolitical weapon.