A Once Unthinkable Scenario
The European Union is actively working on contingency plans to deal with a potential blockade of access to American technologies. What seemed like science fiction a few years ago has become a major strategic concern.
Trade tensions, changes in American policy, and geopolitical instability have pushed Brussels to reconsider its technological dependence. The message is clear: Europe can no longer rely solely on the goodwill of its transatlantic partners.
Critical Dependency on Multiple Levels
The inventory of European dependencies on American tech is staggering:
- AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud host 70% of European data
- European alternatives (OVH, Scaleway) remain marginal
- Government contracts with US clouds raise sovereignty questions
- OpenAI, Google, Anthropic dominate the LLM market
- European models (Mistral) are progressing but remain dependent on US hardware
- AI tools integrated into software mostly come from the United States
- NVIDIA holds 90% of the GPU market for AI
- Intel and AMD supply most processors
- Manufacturing equipment depends on ASML (Dutch) but also US components
- Microsoft Office dominates office productivity
- Salesforce, Oracle, SAP (German but dependent on US infrastructure) manage critical data
- Cybersecurity tools largely come from the United States
Scenarios Considered by Brussels
The European Commission has identified several risk scenarios:
Scenario 1: Targeted restrictions The United States limits access to certain technologies for national security reasons. Precedent: restrictions on Huawei applied to allies.
Scenario 2: Economic sanctions Trade tensions lead to technological retaliation. Europe could find itself in a position similar to Russia after 2022.
Scenario 3: Legal extraterritoriality The US Cloud Act already allows US authorities to access data stored by American companies, even in Europe. This reach could extend.
Scenario 4: Supply chain disruption A geopolitical crisis (Taiwan, for example) interrupts access to advanced semiconductors.
Preparedness Measures Underway
Facing these risks, Europe is accelerating several initiatives:
European Chips Act 43 billion euros to develop a European semiconductor industry. Goal: increase from 10% to 20% of global production by 2030. Intel and TSMC are building factories in Europe, but timelines are long.
Gaia-X and sovereign cloud Franco-German initiative to create a European cloud infrastructure. Progress is slow and criticism plentiful, but the project moves forward. Several "trusted" clouds are being certified.
AI Act and European alternatives European AI regulation also aims to foster the emergence of local players. Mistral AI, Aleph Alpha, and others receive massive public support.
Strategic data storage Some European governments are beginning to require that sensitive data be hosted on infrastructure not subject to American jurisdiction.
Obstacles to Technological Sovereignty
The path to independence is fraught with challenges:
Accumulated lag Europe missed the digital turn in the 2000s-2010s. Catching up on decades of delay will take time and colossal resources.
Market fragmentation 27 countries, 27 different digital policies. Harmonization is progressing but remains insufficient to create continental champions.
Brain drain The best European engineers often leave for the United States for salaries and opportunities. Reversing this trend requires structural changes.
Prohibitive costs Building a semiconductor fab costs 20 billion euros. Developing a competitive LLM requires hundreds of millions. European budgets, although substantial, remain lower than American and Chinese private investments.
What Other Regions Are Doing
Europe is not alone in its concerns:
China After American sanctions, China has massively invested in its chip industry. Results are mixed but determination is total.
Japan and South Korea These countries are strengthening their semiconductor production capabilities, this time with American support.
India Positioning as an alternative for manufacturing and software development. Apple and others are relocating part of their production there.
Implications for European Businesses
Companies must anticipate:
Dependency audit Identify all critical services depending on American providers. Evaluate available alternatives.
Continuity plans Prepare scenarios for switching to European or alternative solutions. Regularly test these plans.
Supplier diversification Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Use multiple clouds, multiple tools, multiple supply sources.
Regulatory monitoring Follow the evolution of American and European laws. Data localization requirements will likely strengthen.
A Brutal but Necessary Wake-Up Call
European awareness comes late, but it comes. Recent events — war in Ukraine, Sino-American tensions, political instability in the United States — have served as a shock.
"We can no longer take access to American technologies for granted. It's a matter of sovereignty and security." > — Thierry Breton, European Commissioner for Internal Market
The road will be long. Ten years, maybe twenty, before Europe has credible alternatives in all critical areas. But the movement has begun.
Conclusion
Europe is preparing for the worst while hoping for the best. Contingency plans against an American technological blockade don't mean this scenario is likely. But they mean the era of geopolitical naivety is over.
For European businesses and citizens, the message is clear: digital sovereignty is no longer an abstract concept. It's a concrete issue that will shape investment decisions, technology choices, and public policies for decades to come.
Europe must give itself the means to achieve its ambitions. Or accept remaining dependent.